China's Carbon-Energy Policy and Asia's Energy Transition: Carbon Leakage, Relocation and Halos by Akihisa Mori

Author:Akihisa Mori [Mori, Akihisa]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, Public Policy, Environmental Policy, Energy Policy
ISBN: 9781000518191
Google: vm9WEAAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 59140485
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2021-12-29T07:05:18+00:00

4.3.2 The 02E-idn, 03E-vnm, 04E-ind, and 05E-trk scenarios

The contribution of the element endowment effect dominates the positive EV of the capital host country in the 02E-idn through 05-E-trk scenarios. However, the terms-of-trade effect of the host country is negative. In the applicable scenarios, the element endowment effects of Indonesia, Vietnam, India, and Turkestan are US$ 507.2 million, US$ 430.4 million, US$ 241.5 million, and US$ 136.8 million, respectively, and the terms-of-trade effects are −US$ 20.2 million, −US$ 221.2 million, −US$ 76.5 million, and −US$ 9.1 million, respectively. Worsening terms of trade result because lower electricity prices lead to lower export prices.

Countries importing at lower prices from the host country, however, will experience positive terms-of-trade effects. This is especially noticeable in the 03E-vnm scenario. Owing to the increase in electricity capital, the product prices of most industries in Vietnam will decrease. Vietnam’s export value is US$ 166.2 billion, and its share of exports to EUEFTA, the USA, China, and Japan is as high as 19.74%, 18.57%, 14.30%, and 9.69%, respectively. A relatively large increase in EV can be seen in these countries and regions.

Lower export prices in host countries negatively impact the terms of trade of the countries that export them. This is particularly remarkable for South Korea’s petroleum and coal products in the 02E-idn scenario. South Korea’s EV is −US$ 15.1 million, of which −US$ 15.0 million is attributable to the deterioration in the terms of trade. Of this deterioration, the portion due to the rise in coal import prices is −US$ 4.2 million, followed by the portion due to the decline in the export prices of petroleum and coal products, which is −US$ 3.8 million. South Korea’s petroleum and coal exports to Indonesia are as high as US$ 36.4 billion, accounting for 14.71% of its total petroleum and coal exports. Conversely, the share of petroleum and coal exports to Indonesia is low at 1.61% and 1.12% in China and Japan, respectively. Therefore, the terms-of-trade effect of petroleum and coal products in both countries is rather positive.

Increased power generation in the recipient regions also affects the terms of trade. An increase in coal demand due to an increase in power generation in the host countries has a negative impact on the terms of trade of the coal-importing country and a positive impact on the terms of trade of the exporting country. Under the four scenarios, Oceania, Mongolia, and Indonesia experience a positive terms-of-trade effect for coal, while China, South Korea, Japan, and India have a negative effect.

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.